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Thematic Article

Economic deterrence versus economic viability of Ukraine during the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion: risks and opportunities

Open ORCID profile in a new windowVitaliy Shpachuk* Vitaliy Shpachuk*

Vitaliy Shpachuk is Visiting Professor at Newcastle University Business School, UK. He has many years of experience in the educational sector; and in the finance sector, in commercial banks and the Central Bank of Ukraine in managerial positions. His research interests focus on business, public administration, and economics; finance and banking; and on FinTech and AI. He has published widely, particularly in the areas of business, public administration and economics, finance and banking. His most recent publications are The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Business Impacts, Risks, and Opportunities (with Stephen Chen, SAGE, 2024) and Modern Banking and Digitalization: The Impact of FinTech on the Banking Market (with Vu Quang Trinh, Springer, 2024).

Vit.Shpachuk@newcastle.ac.uk

,
Open ORCID profile in a new windowVictoria Vdovychenko Victoria Vdovychenko

Victoria Vdovychenko is an Associate Professor and Joint Programme Leader, Future of Ukraine Programme, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge. Her research focuses on European security integration, Ukraine’s defence–industrial mobilisation, and the Black Sea strategic nexus. Her most recent publications are ‘Navigating the trilemma of (in)security: strategic competition in the Black Sea region’ (with N. Albu & N. Chitadze, Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2024, 23(2): 117–28) and ‘Shaping up social resistance: Zelenskyy’s approach to rearranging Ukraine’, in Ukraine under Zelenskyy: Domestic, Foreign and Security Policy in Flux (Institute of Central Europe, 2022). ;

vv333@cam.ac.uk

vdovychenkov@gmail.com

Abstract

Economic security, particularly economic viability, is a critical pillar of national security, underpinning a state’s sovereignty, stability, and long-term prosperity. While standard economic theories and textbooks typically address economic dynamics under conditions of peace, far less attention has been paid to how economies operate during and after periods of armed conflict, despite the increasing frequency of such events worldwide in recent years. The Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has not only severely undermined Ukraine’s economic security but has also contributed to broader global repercussion, including economic slowdowns, substantial financial losses, heightened inflation, rising debt burdens, and increased poverty levels in various parts of the world. This article seeks to address this analytical gap by examining the state of economic security in Ukraine amid wartime conditions, with particular emphasis on economic viability, business impacts, associated risks, and emergent opportunities. Using a ‘5D’ approach together with the ‘strategic trilemma’, the Ukrainian case offers insights for international investors contemplating engagement in conflict-affected environments and provides a foundational basis for further scholarly inquiry into the relationship between war and economic resilience. This article is published in the Thematic Collection ‘Researchers at Risk: the view from Ukrainians in the UK’.

Keywords

economic securityeconomic viabilitystrategic trilemmariskopportunityUkrainefull-scale invasion

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Thematic article

Normal View Dyslexic View

Economic deterrence versus economic viability of Ukraine during the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion: risks and opportunities

Open ORCID profile in a new windowVitaliy Shpachuk* Vitaliy Shpachuk*

Vitaliy Shpachuk is Visiting Professor at Newcastle University Business School, UK. He has many years of experience in the educational sector; and in the finance sector, in commercial banks and the Central Bank of Ukraine in managerial positions. His research interests focus on business, public administration, and economics; finance and banking; and on FinTech and AI. He has published widely, particularly in the areas of business, public administration and economics, finance and banking. His most recent publications are The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Business Impacts, Risks, and Opportunities (with Stephen Chen, SAGE, 2024) and Modern Banking and Digitalization: The Impact of FinTech on the Banking Market (with Vu Quang Trinh, Springer, 2024).

Vit.Shpachuk@newcastle.ac.uk

,
Open ORCID profile in a new windowVictoria Vdovychenko Victoria Vdovychenko

Victoria Vdovychenko is an Associate Professor and Joint Programme Leader, Future of Ukraine Programme, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge. Her research focuses on European security integration, Ukraine’s defence–industrial mobilisation, and the Black Sea strategic nexus. Her most recent publications are ‘Navigating the trilemma of (in)security: strategic competition in the Black Sea region’ (with N. Albu & N. Chitadze, Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 2024, 23(2): 117–28) and ‘Shaping up social resistance: Zelenskyy’s approach to rearranging Ukraine’, in Ukraine under Zelenskyy: Domestic, Foreign and Security Policy in Flux (Institute of Central Europe, 2022). ;

vv333@cam.ac.uk

vdovychenkov@gmail.com